What happened?
On 28 May, President Putin hosted Alexander Lukashenko at a resort in Sochi amid the global outcry over the forced diversion of Ryanair's plane and the arrest of a Belarusian journalist, an outspoken critic of the Lukashenko regime. Putin was seen praising Russia's closer ties with Belarus. He said: "We've been building the Union State" and added, "we are confidently moving in that direction, that work is already bringing concrete results to our citizens." Lukashenko stated the West was "seeking to stir up unrest in Belarus."

During the week, the EU and the US announced sanctions against the forced landing of the plane. On 27 May, the Foreign Ministers of the G7 countries and EU released a joint statement, calling for an "immediate and unconditional release" of the detained Belarusian journalist, Roman Protasevich. His Russian girlfriend was also detained; she admits to being the editor of the social media channel that revealed the personal information of the law enforcement personnel of Belarus. 
24 May also marks one year since the protests against his decision to run for the 2020 Presidential Elections. 

What is the background?
First, Belarus-Russia bonhomie and Moscow's interests. Russia has been steadily increasing its influence over  Belarus. However, the two leaders are described as 'uncomfortable allies,' one that is born out of necessity. Russia has backed Lukashenko's leadership for 27 years and remains Belarus' most powerful political and economic partner. For Russia, Minsk, geographically wedged between the NATO allies and Russia, would be one less neighbour who is influenced by the West. Russian and Belarusian air defence systems are known to be deeply integrated. Though the Kremlin has denied its involvement in the diversion of the plane, the UK Foreign Secretary claimed that it was "very difficult to believe that this kind of action could have been taken without at least the acquiescence of the authorities in Moscow." 

Second, the Western pressure on Belarus through sanctions and beyond. On 28 May, the Biden administration reimposed sanctions against nine state-owned enterprises and is developing additional penalties to further target officials in the Belarusian administration. The EU on the same day pledged a financial package of USD 3.7 billion if Belarus starts a 'peaceful democratic transition.' Previously, on 24 May, the European Union urged all EU-based carriers to avoid flying over Belarus airspace, announced sanctions against all officials linked to the diverted flight, and asked the Civil Aviation Organisation to start an investigation into the forced landing of a passenger plane and demanded the release of the arrested journalist. 

Third, Lukashenko's firm response despite international criticisms. The EU, since the beginning, has refused to accept Lukashenko's victory in the 2020 elections. It has called for new elections, condemned the repression and the violence against the protesters since August 2020. However, Lukashenko has stood his ground and has consistently defended his position. On 26 May, he claimed that he had acted legally and per international norms in the case of the diversion of the passenger plane and stated, "ill-wishers from outside and inside the country have changed their methods to attack the state."

What does it mean?
As someone who has used all means to suppress dissent within the country, the Lukashenko government's decision to divert a plane and arrest two young activists does not come as a surprise. Second, sanctions have failed to impact the government's actions, and it seems like the two sides, the West and Belarus-Russia, have decided to expand their influence and use other tools to engage with each other. 

The question is, how far would Russia be willing to go to defend Lukashenko?